A study published last July on the socio-economic relations between Anatolia, the Aegean Sea and the Middle East, with a focus on the city of Troy-Hisarlik (present-day Turkey) by researcher Stéphane Blum from the University of Tübingen, was the subject of a popular article on The Conversation. This sets out the hypothesis that the fall of Troy would be linked to overexploitation of its natural resources.
Carried out over several years, the study combines various archaeological disciplines, notably archaeobotany, which made it possible to analyze the plant fossils found on the site. The article discusses the rapid development of the city, estimated at ten thousand inhabitants at its peak, between 2500 and 2300 BC. BC, during the Bronze Age. Troy would have enriched itself thanks to its cultural and commercial connections with Mesopotamia, notably adopting the potter’s wheel allowing standardized, simplified and rationalized production. The establishment of a system of uniform weights and measures would also demonstrate advanced administrative organization.
The excavations show a profound transformation in production methods, moving from domestic manufacturing to workshop production. The urban landscape is structured: monumental stone buildings, planned roads and residential neighborhoods appear. At the same time, the surrounding countryside is deteriorating: forests are shrinking, soils are becoming poorer, probably due to overgrazing and intensive agriculture. According to the article, this rapid growth would have stimulated trade beyond the region while weakening local ecosystems.
The author puts forward the hypothesis of a chain of factors: pottery, an economic engine, leads to overexploitation of clay and wood; quarries and forests are becoming exhausted; agricultural production is intensifying to feed the population, causing the depletion of soil and water resources. These imbalances could have led to shortages, social tensions and, ultimately, collapse. Traces of a large fire around 2300 BC. AD, the cause of which remains unknown, would mark this episode of rupture.
The article emphasizes, however, that the city does not disappear: the later archaeological layers show an urban retreat, a return to fallow land and the diversity of cultures, as well as a more sustainable management of resources.
The scientific study itself does not draw a definitive conclusion, especially since the period analyzed covers nine major construction phases and several episodes of destruction. The researchers also discuss a broader phenomenon, affecting the whole of Anatolia, in a context of major climate change.
Furthermore, the very location of Troy continues to be debated. The site of Hisarlık, traditionally identified as that of the city, is considered by some to be too modest to correspond to ancient descriptions, particularly Homeric. In 2022, researcher Oliver D. Smith proposed identifying Troy with Yenibademli Höyük. Other specialists favor alternative causes for its fall: Mycenaean invasion, natural disaster or internal crisis.
